Hadopi Accused Of 'Massaging' The Numbers To Make Anti-Piracy Activity Look Better

from the oops dept

Wed, Apr 4th 2012 12:40pm — Mike Masnick

We just wrote about Hadopi's back slapping report about how much it had reduced "piracy." We noted that what was really telling was the fact that revenue was still declining. However, as more people look at the details of the Hadopi report, even the numbers they provide are looking less and less credible. Monica Horten from IPtegrity looks at a few different sources that raise serious questions about the Hadopi report. What the analysis shows is that P2P file sharing is still increasing in France. The "decline" is not in absolute numbers, but in relative numbers, compared to other sources -- such as streaming. And streaming has gone up quite a bit. An analysis in the French publication Le Figaro highlights how P2P and streaming appear to have basically flip flopped:

On top of that, France Telecom, who has said that P2P use continues to grow, has also noted that it saw "a marked increase in levels of encrypted traffic since the Hadopi notice-sending began," suggesting that there's plenty of file sharing going on via encrypted channels that Hadopi simply can't track.

Furthermore, Horten points to a Numerama report that highlights the fact that Hadopi's numbers come from the IFPI and ALPA. ALPA is a French anti-piracy organization. In other words, organizations who have a long history of fudging their own numbers. You would think, if the data was really showed that Hadopi was having an impact, its numbers would be a lot stronger.

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Filed Under: france, hadopi, p2p, sales
Companies: france telecom

59 Comments

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Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:47pm

If it is possible for other people to say that "peer to peer" file sharing is still increasing how is not possible to track it? This seems to be contradictory to your assertion that "there's plenty of file sharing going on via encrypted channels that Hadopi simply can't track". If no one can track these channels then how are they claiming that P2P is increasing.
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- :Lobo Santo (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:50pm
  
  Re: *snort*
  (Hey, can we use the "report" button for excessively stupid comments, or just the trolling/spam ones?)
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- The Infamous Joe (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:51pm
  
  Re:
  "has also"
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- Tim K (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:53pm
  
  Re:
  You missed a key word there, suggesting. It's not guaranteed that's it's P2P, but when the known P2P traffic goes down, yet encrypted traffic goes up, it's not unreasonable to assume that a good bit of that traffic is P2P.
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  - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:00pm
    
    Re: Re:
    It could be them just trading child porn. They don't know. Mike is making an assumption because it supports his point of view.
    
    It's called bullshit, he knows it... but he does it anyway.
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    - Torg (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:10pm
      
      Re: Re: Re:
      A far more likely conclusion is that P2P piracy traffic is now encrypted, rather than there being an unrelated surge in interest in child porn. It could be child porn, but it's less likely.
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      - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:24pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re:
        The point is, it could be recipes, it could be vacation photos, who knows? Mike doesn't - but he sure isn't shy to draw the conclusion because it helps his cause.
        
        It's bullshit, pure and simple. Don't be shy to call it what it is.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:30pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        France Telecom has seen p2p continue top grow as well as a marked increase in encrypted traffic since Hadopi.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:41pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        You mean like the promise that Hadopi would have an impact negative impact on piracy and a positive impact on revenues?
        
        Yep that is complete bonkers.
        
        Just ask anyone if they can't get something, I doubt you will find many that can't.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:45pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        That's bullshit. See, I'm not shy to call your bullshit bullshit.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:32pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Your bullshit on their bullshit is bullshit.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 11:41pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Well now, that's just shit.
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        Torg (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 3:10pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        "The point is, it could be recipes, it could be vacation photos, who knows?"
        
        And why would any of those things be spiking now? Piracy has a reason to be moving more heavily to encryption at the moment, and that means that the piracy explanation is more likely than any other random use of data you can think of.
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        JMT (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 12:44am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        "It's bullshit, pure and simple."
        
        Damn, aren't you the hypocrite. You accuse Mike of making an assumption that P2P traffic is being encrypted, and then unequivocally state that this is bullshit. You don't say "I think this is unlikely", you make a statement of fact that Mike is wrong. So if Mike is simply making an assumption, isn't that exactly what you're doing? You offer no proof, and simply fall back on the old child porn chestnut. Lame.
        [ link to this | view in chronology ]
        
        bratwurzt (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 4:49am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        I'm not shy calling you an asshole. That doesn't mean that you are one, now does it?
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        Richard (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 8:36am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        The point is, it could be recipes, it could be vacation photos, who knows? Mike doesn't - but he sure isn't shy to draw the conclusion because it helps his cause.
        
        Whilst the statement that Megaupload content consisted almost entirely of infringing material is of course totally reliable - even though there is even less actual evidence...
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    - Tim K (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:33pm
      
      Re: Re: Re:
      Yes, that's it, all of a sudden there was a surge of child porn sharing on encrypted traffic. Let's jump to that instead of the logical conclusion, piracy traffic drops, encrypted traffic jumps, hmm, those wouldn't have anything to do with each other, move along.
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      - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:41pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Point is, we don't know. If it is encrypted, then who knows what it is, right?
        
        So why call it X or Y... Mike adds it to the P2P pile because it supports his point of view. But it's dishonest to suggest it.
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        Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:03pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        France Telecom has seen p2p continue top grow as well as a marked increase in encrypted traffic since Hadopi.
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        Franklin G Ryzzo (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:44pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        I'm curious as to why you feel it is dishonest to suggest something that is very probable? Much more probable in fact then the child porn suggestion given above. In fact, with all of the accusations of entitlement thrown at file sharers, why do you doubt for even a second that they would stop sharing that which they feel should be theirs freely simply because some silly law got passed allowing for disconnections, especially when it is so easy to simply hide your traffic and continue unabated?
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        Torg (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 3:18pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        It's because the Great Masnick Satan said it, and so agreeing with it would be a betrayal of his own side.
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        The Mighty Buzzard (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:53pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Absolutely. It's in no way likely to be p2p traffic. Please tell your bosses to pay no attention to encrypted traffic in the future.
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        surfer (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 3:12pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        actually, it's not. I encrypt my traffic, and I am a filthy pirate. We filthy pirates have been training other filthy pirates on how to circumvent your incredibly expensive laws with free tools for a decade now. I myself have taught at least 50 filthy pirates how to evade your non-technical irrelevancy for over 10 years now.
        
        So, I would say, it IS safe to say that an increase in encrypted traffic is surely file sharing, what are you going to do now, outlaw encryption?
        
        BUA-AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA, foolish copyright maxamilist...
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        techflaws.org (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 9:57pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        But it's dishonest to suggest it.
        
        Yeah, it's completely honest to suggest, it's child porn instead!
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        Anonymous Coward, 5 Apr 2012 @ 4:56am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Yes, that is the point (which you seem to miss). It's equally dishonest to claim it to be child porn as to claim it to be P2P - because we just don't know. Mike wants it to be something, and he is willing to hang the story on it.
        
        It's bullshit, and he knows it. He would hang the MPAA for making similar claims.
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        Torg (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 6:45am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        When empirical proof is impossible to acquire, the next thing you use is logic, not a retreat to "don't even think about trying to explain this". The most logical reason for the increase in encryption is that previously unencrypted traffic is now being encrypted. As there hasn't been a decrease in unencrypted child porn, there's no reason for recipe sharers to be running to encryption services, and there has been a decrease in unencrypted piracy, the most logical conclusion is that piracy is now more widely encrypted. This is what you're supposed to do when direct evidence is not available.
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        Torg (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 6:46am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        When empirical proof is impossible to acquire, the next thing you use is logic, not a retreat to "don't even think about trying to explain this". The most logical reason for the increase in encryption is that previously unencrypted traffic is now being encrypted. As there hasn't been a decrease in unencrypted child porn, there's no reason for recipe sharers to be running to encryption services, and there has been a decrease in unencrypted piracy, the most logical conclusion is that piracy is now more widely encrypted. This is what you're supposed to do when direct evidence is not available.
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        Anonymous Coward, 5 Apr 2012 @ 6:54am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        http://www.tvsubtitles.net/
        
        BS is you talking out of your ass.
        
        english - 71.96 mil
        french - 56.15 mil
        greek - 25.68 mil
        spanish - 5.3 mil
        portuguese(br) - 4.82 mil
        russian - 4.09 mil
        
        Looking at the downloads of subtitles France is strong on piracy still, heck they are at the top sub makers.
        
        Every single page of download for software saw and increase from France from users seeking anonymous encrypted ways to continue downloading and you are saying there is not a good chance that those are the same people who pirated before?
        
        What are you stupid?
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        bratwurzt (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 4:52am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        "...because it supports his point of view."
        
        Really? Which point of view is that (there are so many with you ACs...)?
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        Richard (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 9:34am
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
        Point is, we don't know. If it is encrypted, then who knows what it is, right?
        
        So why call it X or Y... Mike adds it to the P2P pile because it supports his point of view. But it's dishonest to suggest it.
        
        In the current situation the burden of proof is on those who support Hadopi to show that the increased encrypted traffic isn't file sharing - that's how logical argument works you know.
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    - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:45pm
      
      Re: Re: Re:
      It doesn't matter really, Hadopi is a failure either way, if it decrease piracy and revenues decline it strongly suggests the problem lies elsewhere not on sharing(aka piracy), if it doesn't work and pirates just moved on to somewhere else, you still don't get those people to pay for anything.
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    - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:03pm
      
      Re: Re: Re:
      France Telecom has seen p2p continue top grow as well as a marked increase in encrypted traffic since Hadopi.
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- Chuck Norris' Enemy (deceased) (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:03pm
  
  Re:
  You are looking at track the wrong way here. They tracked traffic of p2p and encrypted channels. Mike never stated they couldn't track that (Reading comprehension...it helps!). They can't track what the contents of the encrypted files are, though...and yes, Mike makes an assumption that the big increase in encrypted traffic is mostly due to file sharing going underground. Just like anonymous shill trolls say MOST of the content on MegaUpload is infringing without any evidence and only speculation. But, hey, Mike is making a conclusion from the facts. Doesn't mean he is correct...it is just an opinion blog, mind you.
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- Daemon_ZOGG (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 12:03pm
  
  Re: "If no one can track these channels then how are they claiming that P2P is increasing."
  The data packet headers are not encrypted. Only the data within the packet. So, it's possible to derive what kind of network protocol it may be using. Including the source and destination IP addresses. But, not the data encapsulated within it. ;)
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John Doe, 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:48pm

Proves the old saying...
...figures don't lie but liars figure.
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- Glaze (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:48pm
  
  Re: Proves the old saying...
  Well it is national tell a lie day...
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:48pm

"...suggesting that there's plenty of file sharing going on via encrypted channels that Hadopi simply can't track."
♥!!

It's like, "Hey, if we don't see it and nobody is complaining about it, then there's not a problem."
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- Bayan Rafeh (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:03pm
  
  Re:
  That's not the point, the point is such extreme methods do nothing to solve the problem, which has been proven time and again.
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  - Dionaea (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 12:59am
    
    Re: Re:
    Actually I think they should totally continue this sort of thing, since it *obviously* doesn't harm pirates, but does wake up the not-so-tech-savvy general population, cause lots of THEM are going to end up being cut off. Now we just have to wait for the backlash.
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Rikuo (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:52pm

"that Hadopi's numbers come from the IFPI and ALPA."

Why is it that the numbers regarding a LAW come from a private body that helped draft the law and has obvious biased interests in screaming about piracy?
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Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 12:56pm

Just as I predicted...
...multiple times previously, when I said that those of us who built the Internet would not sit idly by while governments and corporations meddled with it. We've already rolled out encrypted P2P networks, now we're busy tunneling them through other protocols, using steganographic techniques to hide them, and even using sneakernet (in some regions where bandwidth is scarce -- never underestimate the bandwidth of a backpack full of USB drives).

Hadopi is guessing and fabricating. They have no idea what's actually going on right under their noses.
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- Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:21pm
  
  Re: Just as I predicted...
  ever underestimate the bandwidth of a backpack full of USB drives
  
  ...hurtling down the highway.
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- Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:02pm
  
  Re: Just as I predicted...
  So you are a confessed pirate? I guess you fit in here with a lot of the others.
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  - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:33pm
    
    Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
    We also practice witchery.
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    - Dionaea (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 1:01am
      
      Re: Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
      And human sacrifice and cannibalism.
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  - Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:59pm
    
    Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
    No, I just help data move -- quickly, securely, privately.
    
    If you're looking for pirates, I'd try a couple of hundred miles off the coast of Ethiopia -- seems a reasonably likely location for them.
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  - techflaws.org (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 9:59pm
    
    Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
    So you are a confessed shill? I guess you fit in here with a lot of the others.
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  - JMT (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 1:00am
    
    Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
    "So you are a confessed pirate?"
    
    I missed that confession. Can you point out where he said that?
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    - Niall (profile), 5 Apr 2012 @ 4:50am
      
      Re: Re: Re: Just as I predicted...
      Aren't you assuming he's a Catholic? If how, how could he be confessed?
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Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:09pm

whether the figures are false or doctored is irrelevant. if the government can make people believe that Hadopi is working, they will keep it going.
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- Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:43pm
  
  Re:
  This is not a show for the people is a show for politicians, the people know Hadopi is just BS, because everybody can test those assumptions just by pirating something and it is not that difficult at all even in France.
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Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 1:41pm

Nice to know the criticism came quickly. If that Hadopi report is debunked and criticized enough, then other copyright maximalists will be hesitant to reference it.
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BentFranklin (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 2:06pm

Okay, but then if piracy is still occurring at the same rate, we need to amend our point about revenue still dropping, right?
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- Torg (profile), 4 Apr 2012 @ 3:16pm
  
  Re:
  This is true. We can no longer claim to have empirically proven that a drop in piracy leads to an increase in sales. Still, proving that these measures don't do anything is almost as good. It's one of those things, and either way Hadopi isn't helping anyone.
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Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 3:09pm

"Massaging the numbers..."
Mike, you have a very polite way of saying "lying."
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- Anonymous Coward, 4 Apr 2012 @ 9:13pm
  
  Re: "Massaging the numbers..."
  Far too polite. I hear that politicians who massage the numbers also end up giving them the "special service" or "happy ending". If you know what I mean.
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abc gum, 5 Apr 2012 @ 5:02am

"Hadopi Accused Of 'Massaging' The Numbers To Make Anti-Piracy Activity Look Better"

I imagine that is not the only thing they are "massaging"
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Lakanal, 9 Apr 2012 @ 1:42am

But how about the user surveys?
How do you get around the fact that Nielsen's and Mediametrie's user panels confirm a substantial reduction?
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