The Good News On The Manning Verdict? He Could Be Eligible For Parole In A Little Over Eight Years
from the using-the-term-"good-news"-very-loosely dept
Now that we know how long Manning has been sentenced to serve, the question turns to when he'll be released. Worst case scenario is 32 years, with credit for three years of time served. It's obvious he won't serve the entire sentence, but what's the earliest possible date Manning could be paroled?
There will be a lot of analysis covering this over the next few days, but it will be hard to find anything more incisive and informationive than this post by bmaz at emptywheel. His best case scenario is 8.3 years, but figures Manning will more likely serve 10 years unless the espionage counts get knocked out on appeal.
The whole post is thorough and well worth reading. The key takeaway is that Manning's status as a military prisoner means at least one thing will actually work out in his favor.
So, what about Bradley Manning’s potential release date? This is where there is a HUGE difference in the UCMJ process from civilian process. As many know, the United States government has abolished “parole” for federal prison sentences. Instead, and this is now common in many states too, federal prisoners must serve at least 85% of their imposed sentence, and only then are eligible for supervised release for the remaining time. Under the UCMJ, however, there is still an active and healthy parole system that is far more flexible and favorable to a defendant, especially one like Bradley Manning, who is sentenced to a long term.So, there's that bit of a bright side. There are a near-literal ton of considerations that factor into bmaz's calculation and if you have any interest at all in the inner workings of the military prison system or enjoy watching someone who really knows their stuff think out loud, go and read this piece. If he's correct, Manning may end up with some life left to live and his defensive team's pleas aimed at preventing the whistleblower from having to exchange his youth for his "crimes" won't have been completely in vain. Bmaz sums it up this way:
In light of the fact Judge Lind has imposed a term of 35 years, Mr. Manning, considering the time he has already served, could potentially be eligible for release in as little as 9 years from now. As painful as it is to admit, this sentence, and Bradley Manning’s prospects could have very easily looked far worse.Going in, there was no way Manning would walk away unscathed, even if a great many of us believe his only "crime" was causing headaches for the powers that be. And it must be noted (and never forgotten) that the wrongdoers Manning exposed aren't serving any time at all.
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Filed Under: bradley manning, parole
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Ah, but that little fly in the ointment...
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Re: Ah, but that little fly in the ointment...
the folly of his vindictive treatment will have been recognised and he will already have been released as a hero
OR
They will have "got away with it" and in any case different people will be in power so the pressure to keep him locked up will not be there.
The current political situation cannot last that long.
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Re: Ah, but that little fly in the ointment...
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Apparently Manning has asked for a Presidential pardon.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/21/bradley-manning-barack-obama_n_3792743.html
I like this tact. It forces the White House to actually back up their "pro-whistleblower" rhetoric with action.
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I agree with Zakida: A military record restoration and a full pardon will be the only good news Bradley can get.
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That's actually the one biggest defeat. And disturbing evidence that the justice system is not in one bit just or fair. Unless you either have a position that holds power or knows someone that can pull the strings for you.
This verdict has simply killed any trust in the judicial system a lot of people had.
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Maybe not so much.
Chaz (aka Chasity) Bono still has plenty of name recognition. Probably even more so than before the gender change.
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In some circles. He won't get a job with them (and why would he want to work for them?). There are a lot of people who consider his actions patriotic, though, and they may be more inclined to hire him than they otherwise would have been.
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no charge...
well, he would have to take out the trash and do the dishes every once in a while...
HE has more trust and goodwill from me than ALL the politicians in the world put together...
the people know who the real patriots are, and they aren't in washingtoon...
art guerrilla
aka ann archy
eof
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and plenty to do while he/she is in a Male prision.
As for people 'housing' him or employing him when he gets out, that's just not going to work.. sex change or not, he is NOT going to be the same person when he gets out of prison.
And he's not that much of a person now.
It's like saying 'sure I would let mike Tyson stay at my place when he gets out of prison, with me and my children and wife !!
Name recognition goes both ways, it does not mean everyone likes you. Some who clearly cant be trusted will never be trusted.
But he has many options for appeals, and reduction in sentenes, except for any appeals for the charges he pled guilty on, when have a 20 fixed sentince, so it will be more difficult to have them reduced.
He also has an automatic military review, or his sentence that can be reduced or kept the same but not increased.
After that he has the normal civil court appeal system all the way to the supreme court.
None of that is any assurance there he will try them or that they will lead to any real reduction in time or parole.
Don't worry, in a couple days/weeks people will have forgotten all about him.
I have no problems with his confused sexuality but I do not think this timing is all that good with that. Considering where he is going to be living for some time.
So the best he can hope for is that he enjoyed his life up to this point, because from now on it wont be all roses and sequins and high heals.
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Ten years from now
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Look on the bright side
War is bad, in war people on both sides and even innocent people get killed !
Bad people will do bad things to other people, EVEN IN WAR.
Some diplomats don't like other diplomats, and will even call them names !!
If you are in a war zone you might get killed, by either side, even if you are not fighting in the war.
You also learn it's easy to be judge when you are not there and not being shot at every day.
You also learn that people in the military will not always follow the law or rules, this includes Manning himself.
Do you think they are going to overturn any conviction on a charge he plead guilty too ?
So Manning did us a great service, he spent his life and waisted it to inform us that war is bad, and bad people will do bad things, and that people get killed if they are spending their time in a war zone !
At Manning will be able to serve his time thinking about all the good lessons he showed the world !!!
I have nothing against Manning at all, but he did give up an great deal to reveal basically nothing that everyone did not already know. A high price to pay to achieve so little.
Oh as well, If you hope for a presidential pardon, don't spend all your time attacking the Government, it might influence their willingness to cut you a break.
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he she it
I am not surprised he is confused with the morals of military secrets, he's confused with much simpler things.
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I believe that only applies during the term of his miltitary service (6 years). After his military service time runs out he will receive his dishonorable discharge and be transferred to a civilian federal prison. At that point the no parole kicks in.
I think he has 4.7 years in? If so then unless he receives a UCMJ parole in the next 1.3 years he'll do the whole term.
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Or did she
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/08/22/bradley-chelsea-manning-wikileaks.html
O r could this be the start of a new mental defence?
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TRW Inc.
This is after he gave Nike ICBM guidance computer chips that TRW. Inc had designed in the mid-1970's.
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