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Data On 'Six Strikes' Suggests Little Real Impact

Studies

from the because-of-course dept

Thu, May 29th 2014 3:57pm — Mike Masnick
Academic research has already shown pretty clearly that so called "graduated response" programs, in which ISPs send out notices concerning alleged infringement under a varying number of "strikes," don't actually work, but a failure to be effective has never stopped the legacy entertainment industry from pursuing useless policies and programs. Earlier this week, the Center for Copyright Information (CCI), which administers the Copyright Alert System (CAS), better known as the "six strikes" program, finally released some data about the program. While CCI quickly declared it a success, a quick look at the data suggests a rather dismal failure in terms of actually mitigating any behavior.

The proponents of the program insist that mere notices (i.e., "education") would lead people to suddenly stop their unauthorized usage ways, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all.
While, yes, that shows a decreasing slope, there's always going to be a decreasing slope due to the nature of time between alerts. And, really, if "education" was effective, you'd expect to see a much more massive decrease. As TorrentFreak notes:
...the repeat warning percentage of 30% is quite high, especially when one takes into account that people who received their first alert during the last month had little time to generate a second one. In addition, the detection rate is relatively low, not to mention subscribers’ use of anonymizing tools.

It appears that U.S. pirates are relatively persistent. In France, for example, only 9% of all the warned copyright infringers received two warnings, and that was after two full years. Also, only 0.029% of the French got a third strike.

While these “strikes” programs have their differences, the high number of second warnings in the U.S. stands out.
In other words, the data certainly suggests the deterrent effect of the program isn't particularly powerful. Furthermore, it appears that there's a rather significant error rate. After the 3rd and 4th alert, people can challenge the claims, and there were 47 successful challenges (out of 265 total challenges). Most of the successful challenges involved people claiming that others were using their account, but it certainly highlights the problem with these programs, when you are declared guilty first, and can then "pay" to challenge, you'd hope there wouldn't be so many "errors" in the program. Either way, given the fact that these programs really appear to have little overall impact on the end user, it's not surprising that so few challenge them in the first place.
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Filed Under: cas, cci, copyright, copyright alert system, impact, six strikes
Companies: cci, center for copyright infringement

42 Comments

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Reader Comments

The First Word

“
After my first notice, I discovered how to set-up an offshore Torrent box. Now I download more than ever with no notifications at all.

Thanks Comcast!
—AnonCow
 ”

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  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 4:12pm

    What about the "massive disconnections from the internet" Chicken Little? What happened there?

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      CK20XX (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 7:35pm

      Re:

      I think the UN declared it to be a human rights violation. There's really nothing that can be done to forcefully stop online file sharing. As cliched as it sounds, only love and peace will prevail in this battle.

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • This comment has been flagged by the community. Click here to show it
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 4:28pm

    Mike Masnick just hates it when copyright law is enforced.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      charliebrown (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 4:33pm

      Re: Enforced

      But if nobody's actually getting disconnected, how is copyright law being enforced?

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

      • identicon
        gnudist, 29 May 2014 @ 4:42pm

        Re: Re: Enforced

        he's just copy pastas that with no real thought as to what Mike is actually criticizing.

        I'm not even sure it's even a person as much as a script that scans for copyright related articles and posts that crap automatically

        [ link to this | view in chronology ]

        • icon
          vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 4:49pm

          Re: Re: Re: Enforced

          It's not just a script. I've downloaded over 3 terabytes of gay porn, but I only got a notice from Comcast for downloading a specific gay porn from a specific company.

          So apparently there are specific torrents which are singled out for enforcement.

          [ link to this | view in chronology ]

          • identicon
            gnudist, 29 May 2014 @ 4:52pm

            Re: Re: Re: Re: Enforced

            You might be the slightest bit confused as to what I was replying to. try the threaded view

            [ link to this | view in chronology ]

            • icon
              vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 4:57pm

              Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Enforced

              woops. I think you might be right. I was however already using the threaded view. The problem was actually that I had not scrolled up far enough to understand what the thread was about.

              [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • identicon
      Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 9:19pm

      Re:

      Never mind the completely irrelevant fact that the six strikes program was not an enforcement of law but rather a private agreement among large corporations, some of whom are also, by way of vertical monopoly acquisitions, copyright holders.

      But don't let facts get in the way of your pithy, if tired, derision.

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • icon
    vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 4:40pm

    After downloading gay porn...

    After a long night of downloading gay porn, Comcast sent me a notice months later warning me that should I continue downloading gay porn from CorbinFisher.com without paying that I would risk having my Internet shut down.

    I immediately stopped and switched to my neighbors WEP secured wifi.

    So, basically, contradicting your silly chart, it does have a profound effect on downloading pirated content.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • identicon
      gnudist, 29 May 2014 @ 4:49pm

      Re: After downloading gay porn...

      Looks like actual gay porn site, his homosexual credentials check out

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

      • icon
        vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 4:58pm

        Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

        You seem homophobic to me. Did you expect a pink colored gun silhouette or something?

        [ link to this | view in chronology ]

        • identicon
          gnudist, 29 May 2014 @ 4:59pm

          Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

          as a gay man I'm amused at the accusations of homophobia.

          [ link to this | view in chronology ]

          • icon
            vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 5:03pm

            Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

            Ever seen the term "straight acting" on Grindr.

            It happens all the time.

            [ link to this | view in chronology ]

            • identicon
              gnudist, 29 May 2014 @ 5:26pm

              Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

              I haven't used grindr(I don't use software thats not free as in speech) and I don't make assumptions about behavior because it's part of the attitude that is responsible for bigotry, anti gay or otherwise.

              a lot of people don't want gays to adopt because it's assumed that "gay-acting" entails pedophilia for example.

              [ link to this | view in chronology ]

              • icon
                vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 5:38pm

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

                uh huh, that's what they all say as they browse their local area with their headless torso profiles entitled 'straight hung jock' ...sending out 'woofs!' to various strangers.

                [ link to this | view in chronology ]

            • identicon
              Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 5:27pm

              Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

              Ever heard of "gay mafia"?

              [ link to this | view in chronology ]

        • icon
          Anonymous Howard (profile), 30 May 2014 @ 1:00am

          Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

          You seems to be (or at least act like) the 'flamboyant, rainbow-flag weaving, makeup and skirt wearing fag' type of gay.
          Would you consider not sinking the whole gay ship with your burning homosexuality?

          [ link to this | view in chronology ]

          • identicon
            Anonymous Coward, 1 Jun 2014 @ 1:48am

            Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

            Can't. They're all born this way. If anyone disagrees, it's because it's all those nasty, close-minded Christians clamping them down. Gay love, rainbow flags and a dick in every ass is the way of the future. Christians to the lions!

            [ link to this | view in chronology ]

            • icon
              Anonymous Howard (profile), 2 Jun 2014 @ 2:23am

              Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: After downloading gay porn...

              I wouldn't mind throwing fundamentalist christians to the lions either (or any fanatic religious people).

              Just for the record: most gay people aren't like this. They are normal people with different sexual affinity than you or me.

              [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      That Anonymous Coward (profile), 30 May 2014 @ 4:27am

      Re: After downloading gay porn...

      I am more curious how they got allowed to the big kids table.

      Six Strikes was never very pron friendly.

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 4:43pm

    The problem was...

    The problem was that they just used too many strikes. If only it had been a 5 strike program I'm sure it would have have worked perfectly!
    (s)

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • identicon
      Chris Brand, 29 May 2014 @ 4:52pm

      Re: The problem was...

      No, the problem is that the penalties aren't there. What's needed is a good deterrent. Like "the first time you're accused of infringement, we cut your left hand off", "the second time you're accused of infringement, we gouge both your eyes out". Even better, we could post videos of the punishments online to show that we're serious - we could even show ads to recoup the costs involved! Nah, that might not look good - better to get the state to pay the costs instead.

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

      • identicon
        MPAA executive, 29 May 2014 @ 4:54pm

        Re: Re: The problem was...

        no no no. nothing less than the death penalty will deter these nazis from Holocausting our films!

        [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 5:25pm

    Ironically, what isn't represented is the possibility that not receiving notices when you are still downloading might bolster the confidence of downloaders, so a program like this that isn't effective might actually increase unauthorized downloads. These stats only cover the people who were notified, which looks like less than a million, which is less than 1/300th of the population.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    AnonCow, 29 May 2014 @ 5:29pm

    After my first notice, I discovered how to set-up an offshore Torrent box. Now I download more than ever with no notifications at all.

    Thanks Comcast!

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      Ninja (profile), 30 May 2014 @ 3:08am

      Re:

      I hope you are distributing the wealth. I download shittons of stuff to give to people via usb sticks ;)

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • icon
    Jamie (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 5:32pm

    Reason for the decrease?

    A significant factor in the decrease may just be that once a person receives a notice, they take steps (proxy etc.) to ensure that they are not detected.

    It could be that a large proportion of the people who receive a first notice are still infringing; they are just now hiding it better to avoid receiving a second notice.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 5:58pm

    VPN

    Where is the graph showing increase of non-USA vpn usage?

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • icon
    Nigel (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 6:30pm

    Well, this got derailed quickly lol.. I thought I was on reddit for a sec.

    Since we are largely off topic, Dragon 2 Unveil in 30 min.

    http://www.spacex.com/webcast/

    Perhaps not entirely off topic. I have a raging nerd boner at least.

    N.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 6:45pm

      Re:

      I'm waiting for Virgin Galactic to unveil their Dragon-Eater. It has cool mood lighting panels inside and an open bar in first class.

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • icon
    Chronno S. Trigger (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 6:46pm

    No, no no. This program was a complete success. Piracy is down across the board. Now you have nothing to blame for your failing business except yourselves.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 6:49pm

    "While CCI quickly declared it a success"

    Why of course it is a success because they made money off of it and that is how they measure success.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 May 2014 @ 7:09pm

    I went to VPN when my provider became part of the six strikes group. I'm yet to receive any warning and don't expect one.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      vancedecker (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 8:26pm

      Re:

      Isn't that painfully slow?

      [ link to this | view in chronology ]

      • icon
        Ninja (profile), 30 May 2014 @ 3:10am

        Re: Re:

        It depends on the VPN provider. If you are willing to shell some more money you will get decent speeds. Although there are some good cheap alternatives. TorrentFreak has a great list of vpns and analysis of their anonymity features and approach to law enforcement.

        [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • icon
    afn29129 (profile), 29 May 2014 @ 11:17pm

    Storage costs...

    piracy rates keep increasing because HDD costs keep decreasing.

    I mean dang it all! That shiny new 4 TB drive is hungry.
    And the other three 4 TB drives are just a hungry.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    me@me.net, 30 May 2014 @ 5:19am

    the only thing the ""LEGACY"" industry has accomplished

    Is reducing cerain forms of art into homogenized schlock that is useless. They should be allowed as industries to utterly fail for the dinosaurs they are and we should start over.

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 30 May 2014 @ 9:32pm

    LOL!

    [ link to this | view in chronology ]


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