Remember Claims That Cord Cutting Was On The Ropes? It's Actually Worse Than Ever
from the numbers-don't-lie dept
Despite the obvious realities that ratings are down and consumers are cutting the cord, there's a vibrant and loyal segment of executives and analysts who still somehow believe cord cutting is a myth. Every few months, you'll see a report about how cord cutting is either nonexistent or overstated. Earlier this year, these voices were quick to argue that the industry had cord cutting on the ropes because several of the biggest cable providers saw modest subscriber gains in the fourth quarter (ignoring several that saw net subscriber losses for the year).Those folks have been pretty damn quiet the last few weeks as second quarter earnings show cord cutting is worse than ever.
A new report by Leichtman Research notes that the pay TV industry collectively lost about 665,000 net video subscribers last quarter, a number some other analysts say was closer to 757,000. Dish Network alone lost 281,000 subscribers, while the new, larger Charter (after acquiring Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks) lost 143,000 subscribers. "Phone" companies were hit particularly hard, telcos alone losing 500,000 subscribers in just one quarter. In fact, with AT&T and DirecTV now being one company, every single pay TV provider saw a net loss in TV subscribers during Q2:
It's kind of hard to spin this kind of bloodshed, so cord cutting denialists are likely to remain quiet -- at least for a few months.
Most analysts believe that these losses are due in large part to folks that are moving to a new home or apartment, and not bothering to sign back up for cable when they do. But if you factor in that these numbers aren't scaling alongside housing growth, things are even uglier than the numbers indicate. But because companies like Comcast occasionally see quarters with very modest subscriber gains (thanks in part to their monopoly over broadband and bundling), you'll still somehow see folks trying to argue that cord cutting is either non-existent or an over-hyped fad.
But occasionally somebody will step back and take an intelligent big picture look at the numbers, making the overall trend pretty damn apparent:None of this is to say that cable providers couldn't quickly change the entire narrative by simply competing more seriously on TV service price (at the cost of higher broadband bills, of course). But instead, most cable sector executives still desperately cling to the narrative that cord cutting is a fad that stops once Millennials procreate. This is, they clearly believe, just a touch of cash cow indigestion that will magically resolve itself, so there's no reason to stop hitting consumers with biannual rate hikes for bloated bundles of unwatched channels.
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Filed Under: cord cutting, internet, tv
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Worse than ever?
Let me fix that, this won't hurt a bit..
"Remember Claims That Cord Cutting Was On The Ropes? It's Actually Better Than Ever"
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It's not as bad as it looks
And it's a simple and easy to accomplish step that any manager could do. Even an MBA.
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Drop the label
But one good indicator of a sea change... recognizing reality... is when everyone stops putting scare quotes around "OTT" -- or, better yet, drops the term altogether. It's no longer "over the top"... our current day blend of streaming, mobile and a whiff of broadcast is the new normal, and it doesn't need a label, because we're all living it.
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Fair enough; I'm counting on CompuServe to make a comeback once baby boomers retire.
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Re:
A better bet would be AOL.
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Re: Re:
WorldCom promptly spiraled to bankruptcy, while AOL's bit of CompuServe withered away. It still technically exists as a dial-up ISP and web page stuck in 2001.
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[Pulls CD out of the drawer]
I have 500 Free Hours left!
(Dang, can't find a CD drive on this computer.)
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What about increases in sub to lower priced TV tiers?
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Re: What about increases in sub to lower priced TV tiers?
And then the Nielsen measurements only generate averages for actual broadcast TV users (although they also do some streaming now for those same broadcast users), and extrapolate the results across the entire subscriber base, including the people who only have cable TV because it came with their broadband subscription, but have never actually physically connected a device to the system.
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I like this newsworthy article:
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Re: I like this newsworthy article:
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Re: Re: I like this newsworthy article:
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Yea. They don't realize that most Millienials can't afford to procreate. You know, with those crazy tuition loans, sky high rents, low salaries, rising health insurance co-pays and premiums, and other more important bills than cable TV.
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Not to mention the explosion in electronics kits and robot kits for kids from about 6-8+, including learning to code for themselves. Plenty of stuff to do instead of lying in front of a TV.
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For instance I see a T.V. series on Netflix. I watch an episode or two online. I like it, so I order the rest of the season (or all the seasons) to be delivered. I can also include a few other shows and movies as well. While they are being delivered I can continue to watch more episodes online.
What I already have is a wireless more permanent device with a built in large hard drive that can wirelessly sync to my tablet or television via a Netflix app or it can be connected to my router or television via an Ethernet cable.
A hard drive arrives and I use a USB cable to connect it to my existing permanent device above. Everything I ordered is automatically transferred onto my permanent hard drive. I send the mail in hard drive that was sent to me back. I can then order more stuff to be delivered or delete stuff off my permanent drive as I decide I've either watched them or don't want to see them.
This can augment my Internet connection and largely reduce my dependency on ISP bandwidth while still making my experience seamless.
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Re: Net Adds
instead 'Net Adds', it might
inform them where those subs
are moving to. The net.
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Most see profit lost, I see profit gained.
TV provider weekly meeting...
Intern: Sir, we are losing customers at an increased rate. Just look at this slide, we are DOOMED....
CEO: WTF are you talking about. This slide is great.
First it shows that soon we won't have to negotiate license with companies in order to provide their junk shows.
Second, this gets rid of the business model of providing customers with unlimited viewing option for one set price.
Third, it allows us to increase our profit margins. As the cost for hardware decreases month to month, we are able to charge a premium which will increase with the more they want to watch. We will charge $0.20 for each Youtube video, $1.20 for each Netflix video, and just wait until the 4k videos come out. That will be $6.15 for each video based upon the data consumption....
Boys, we are RICH, Rich, Rich....
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Even more than the numbers show
I'm in their stats as a cable subsriber but there are no cable advertisers getting any "benefit" from my subscription. This is simply COMCAST cooking the books.
The numbers are even worse: my vacation house was selected by Nielsen to be monitored for TV viewership. Every couple of months the local rep tries to get me to sign up, but then when they realize I haven't bought a TV "yet" they go away and my house is not in the numbers. That's right: if I purchased a TV, even if I never used it, I'd be counted. So national subscriber percentages are artifically inflated too.
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Why Cord Cutting Shouldn't Surprise You
While 'cable' is exemplary of 'Free Market' and 'Capitalism', they are missing the big point, you can't sell water to a fish, and you can't sell meat to a vegetarian. They are in a death spiral because they can't or won't tell their 'manufacturer' (i.e.: Hollywood) that the trash is killing them, and they won't carry it anymore.
Yes, Hollywood and liberals can sell all the MSNBC, 'Pitch', 'Notorious' and assorted 'real dramas' all you want, but if the silent majority isn't buying it, and the target liberal audience isn't tuning in, then what you have is wasted radio waves (and cable bandwidth) choked with stumbling white elephants that will not only be one-season-wonders, but the 'magic bullet' that eventually FORCES cable to restructure.
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Re: Why Cord Cutting Shouldn't Surprise You
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Re: Why Cord Cutting Shouldn't Surprise You
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But millennials aren't having sex.
Maybe, the millennials are have sex but are lying in surveys. That would be just like them.
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Re: But millennials aren't having sex.
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Cord Cut Prospects
So do I *need* cable? Not really. It's just convenient for DVR functions. more Netflix options (Canadian Netflix sucks) and other downloads, live streaming for CNN and CBC news, political debates, etc mean that really, it might not be impossible to cut the cord. A bit more convenience
Funny thing, this describes my 70-plus in-laws' viewing habits too - except for the illegal downloads. Live cable is only there until the alternatives are even more convenient.
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Re: Cord Cut Prospects
Why not just buy a DVR?
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It's actually BETTER than ever
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Once you cut the cord, you don't want to sign up to a bunch of other services and end up paying just as much money as before, for less channels. Maybe you're just watching to much TV!!!
I had to call Comcast when my prices went up to normal rates to get another price drop and it was cheaper to get a bundle with HBO then just Internet ONLY. I don't even have time to watch much HBO, and the cheap cable box they gave me I haven't hooked up as I'd need to run a cable and really don't care. I just wanted Internet ONLY, and went bundle for the cheapest deal. I'm still using the Antenna and Tivo anyway.
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Cutting the cord again
Just tested an amazon basics HD antenna in the Pittsburgh (murrysville/plum region) + basic tuner for $60 and I get all 4 OTA (plus 20 shopping channels/archie bunker). That'll be enough sports for me... If its only on NBCSN, I'll hit the bar and support my local business.
I'll miss CNN... the one time a month there's a live-newsworthy event.
Sorry to necro this thread, I've been staring at this thread for an hour as I make the decision to cut again... from 210 a month to 80. (Fuck you comcast, 50 bucks to 80 for mid-teir internet per month in the 5 years I've measured. 72 for 75/5 i believe, plus the inevitable "recovery fees".
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