The Latest In Hollywood Mathematics: A 46.3% Employment Increase Equals 'Countless Jobs Lost'

from the what-is-this-i-don't-even dept

Tue, Apr 24th 2012 9:04am — Tim Cushing

As Mike pointed out in his post concerning the "Intellectual Property and the U.S. Economy" report, the entities behind the push for greater IP enforcement continue to deliver laughable numbers with a straight face, expecting legislators to accept these inflated "loss" numbers with complete credulity. Also par for the course is the chorus of supportive voices echoing the catch phrases and magical loss numbers contained in the report, starting out with Techdirt favorite Creative America, which revived its mostly dormant blog to drop some quotes from AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka on the continued "impact" of "digital theft" on "American jobs."

Trumka delivered these remarks during the presentation of the report, taking time out to laud the "heavily unionized" but unsung heroes of the entertainment industry, especially those who make up the constantly-threatened demographic of "middle class professions." Trumka does the usual "it's not movie stars, it's the heavily unionized middle class" that suffers the most when infringement occurs, touching on the "downstream revenues" that provide the unsung heroes with their income. And he drops the almost-obligatory (and always unchallenged) statement expressing just how many jobs have been lost to "digital theft:"

But along with billions of dollars each year, digital theft has cost the U.S. entertainment industry countless jobs.

I'm inclined to agree with Trumka's estimate on lost jobs. It certainly is "countless." No one trotting out this anti-piracy trope seems to be able to provide anything more specific than "billions of dollars" and "countless jobs." You know, the Bureau of Labor does a little counting now and then and, according to its reported figures, the movie and music industries employ slightly over 400,000 people, all of whom have lost their jobs to digital theft within the past half decade, if statements like Trumka's are to be believed.

Of course, the more Trumka says, the further away he travels from anything resembling a "fact." His "corroborating evidence" speeds past the exit marked "Last Normal Talking Point for 500 Miles" and heads straight for the Hollywood suburb of Pure Speculation:

A 2011 report from the U.S. International Trade Commission estimated conservatively that if China protected intellectual property as the U.S. does, there would be approximately 923,000 new U.S. jobs.

So, if we're going to take this report at face value, the entertainment industry isn't actually losing any jobs, it's just failing to create new ones. I haven't "lost" every job I've never been hired for. Trying to claim that jobs "not created" is equal to "jobs lost" is the sort of last-ditch semantics deployed by spokesmen who know they've got nothing solid to work with. If Trumka's statements are taken at face value, simply getting China to play nice with American IP would more than triple the number of people employed by the movie and music industry.

What's even more confusing is that pro-IP groups can't even get their own numbers to paint the same picture. The Copyright Alliance blog has its own post dealing with the "Intellectual Property and the U.S. Economy" report, which paints a very different picture.

Industries that rely heavily on patents, trademarks and copyrights have a significant impact on the economy and have a ripple employment effect to other industries not directly focused on IP. The report cited an employment increase of 46.3% among copyright-intensive industries between 1990 and 2011.

OK... So, which is it? Is the US creative economy leaking jobs at an alarming rate or is it stronger than it's been in over 2 decades? If these industries can show an employment increase of 46.3% while weathering the threat of blank CDs, Napster, BitTorrent, the Pirate Bay, personal computers, DVD burners, streaming services, file lockers and, well, pretty much everything Google-related, than what seems to be the problem? Is China really eating our IP lunch? Are we somehow simultaneously losing and gaining entertainment jobs at such a breakneck pace that even those delivering talking points can't even get on the same page of the report?

Yes, in fairness, these numbers are looking at different things. Trumka refers directly to the "entertainment industry," which to the AFL-CIO generally refers to the motion picture industry, where unionization is more prevalent. The Copyright Alliance blog simply mentions "copyright intensive industries," which somehow include the same industries (software, computing) that took a stand against the last major "copyright intensive" legislation push, not to mention unrelated things like "dairy products". Nevertheless, there is quite the contradiction between the soothsaying on one end and the cheerleading on the other.

In the rush to make it appear as though many millions of Americans (40 million, according to their own numbers -- 20% of the nation's workforce) are somehow dependent on thriving "copyright intensive" industries, the cheerleading squad manages to contradict its own claims. Either the inclusion of the tech industry to the "copyright intensive" workforce is responsible for the entire 46.3% jump in employment (or more actually, considering "countless jobs lost"), or the entertainment industry (read: movies and music) isn't shedding workers quite as fast as the surrounding panic would indicate. In fact, the industries affected the most by"digital theft" seem to rise and fall at the same rate as "non-IP intensive" industries, as indicated by information included in the IP-sky-is-falling report.

The final question remains: why would anyone believe these numbers? The jobs theoretically affected by "digital theft" range from the Bureau of Labor's reported 400K to the industries' own estimates, which vary from 5.1 million ("...creative community, including software, content and computing industries...") to a thoroughly ridiculous 40 million ("...IP-intensive industries support at least 40 million jobs and contributing $5 trillion dollars to the economy..."). Without a true baseline, the numbers mean nothing. "Countless jobs lost" will remain unenumerated due to a lack of information, which works out just fine for the industries' lobbyists and spokesmen. Nothing's scarier than unspecified amounts. Leaving the job losses "countless" allows them to be as large as anyone wants, needs or imagines them to be.

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Filed Under: afl-cio, creative america, hollywood math, ip industries, richard trumka

40 Comments

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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:17am

Hollywood math: 864564 + 536363 = 5
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- Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:00am
  
  Re:
  You forgot to carry the money, into an offshore account, perfectly legal, we assure you.
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- Josef Anvil (profile), 25 Apr 2012 @ 1:17am
  
  Re: Hollywood math
  "Hollywood math: 864564 + 536363 = 5"
  
  Ok even though that was pretty amusing, the reality is even funnier.
  
  Return of the Jedi Gross Revenue: $572 million and rising
  Return of the Jedi Net Profit: $0
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Zakida Paul (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:21am

Pity politicians will completely ignore these facts and push ahead with their agenda to control the Internet.
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- MrWilson, 24 Apr 2012 @ 11:10am
  
  Re:
  Facts just get in the way of campaign contributions.
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:23am

Science!!
And, as always, our legislators are apparently incapable of logically pointing out things like "you're full of shit" to these guys; plus I bet they won't bother with anything resembling a cost/benefit analysis while signing-without-reading whatever bullshit bill is put in front of them by the MAFIAA.

*Grrr*
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- PlagueSD (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:41am
  
  Re: Science!!
  It's a scientific fact that the level of "shit" someone is full of is inversely proportional to the amount of "cash" the observer is guaranteed to receive.
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  - :Lobo Santo (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:47am
    
    Re: Re: Science!!
    Or, in other words, no matter how stupid the thing being said, I'll take it seriously if I'm being given enough money by the person doing the saying...?
    
    That makes a rather large amount of sense, especially coming from somebody who's not paying me.
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    - Chosen Reject (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:15am
      
      Re: Re: Re: Science!!
      Well, since I haven't received any amount of cash from either PlagueSD or you, then I can be assured of what you are full of. Unless of course...let me check my bank account...no, no, you are still full of it, but I'll check back later just in case.
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- gorehound (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:52am
  
  Re: Science!!
  Boycott All MAFIAA Content is one of the Solutions.Not a great one but for me it is one of the ways I fight back.
  No Theater Going
  No Buying MAFIAA Products
  Buying Only USED MAFIAA
  Spending my Wallet on INDIE Stuff Only
  
  Been doing this for years.Hope we see Millions doing this once Mr. Normal starts getting his new "6 Strikes Yer Out KRPA".
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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:23am

The final question remains: why would anyone believe these numbers?

Answer: Ignorance, stupidity, and incompetence.
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- Zakida Paul (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:26am
  
  Re:
  Or more likely corruption. Let's not forget that these are the companies who fund a politician's election campaign and have nice jobs waiting for them when they finish in politics.
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- Jonny, 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:22am
  
  Re:
  Or a politician paid to believe them.
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- Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 6:22pm
  
  Re:
  No, I think the answer you're looking for is "paywall bob".
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- Hans B PUFAL (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:29pm
  
  Re:
  expecting legislators to accept these inflated "loss" numbers with complete credulity.
  
  Who wouldn't accept such numbers when they are are generously wrapped in crisp new dollar bills.
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varagix, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:46am

Am I the only one who notices that according to that graph from the Sky Is Rising article, patent intensive industries are having a general downward trend in employment, and out of all of them, non-IP intensive industries are effected least (eyeballing it, I'd say half as much) by reductions in employment?

Also copyright is effected most by both increases and decreases in employment. But that's probably due more to entertainment being a luxury, and thus one of the first things cut from personal spending when times are tought.
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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:49am

"The final question remains: why would anyone believe these numbers?"

How can people willing donate big bags of campaign cash POSSIBLY be wrong about something! Are you saying that companies like BP, who gave me over $10 million in campaign contributions, don't really know best about protecting our oceans from oil spills!
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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:49am

'expecting legislators to accept these inflated "loss" numbers'.

and there hangs the problem. the stupid, easily led, easily bought politicians, do accept these figures and the more they are 'encouraged' to accept them the more they spout the figures and back up the industries. if those on the 'reduce copyright' side of the fence were to hold as many meetings and give as many interviews as these people, a much more fair picture would emerge. as that doesn't happen, everyone that matters in law enforcement and politics are able to continue down this road unchallenged.
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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 9:56am

"The Latest In Hollywood Mathematics: A 46.3% Employment Increase Equals 'Countless Jobs Lost'"

They are correct. You can't count the amount of jobs lost if there aren't any to count.

Hence, countless.
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rubberpants, 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:00am

And of course, as we all know, when a key grip looses his job he is summarily thrown into a bottomless pit in Ed Begley Jr's backyard, never to contribute to society or be heard from again. His job is truly lost forever.
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- rubberpants, 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:08am
  
  Re:
  That's the same hole, by the way, where people throw the money they should have spent on the things they pirate.
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  - Ed C., 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:16am
    
    Re: Re:
    Nailed it!
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  - Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 2:38pm
    
    Re: Re:
    I thought the only way you could lose your job and still have money thrown at you was if you worked as a CEO or in the financial sector?
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    - Niall (profile), 25 Apr 2012 @ 4:39am
      
      Re: Re: Re:
      I think the average copyright holder might fit as well.
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Ed C., 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:14am

Truth about Hollywood's jobs numbers.
To make sense of Hollywood's endless job "loses", you have to look at how Hollywood works. Basically, every movie is a production "company". When the movie is finished, the majority of the employees are laid off. The little part they never mention is that those same "jobless" masses just get hired on by other productions.

If infringement had any real effect, there would be a decrease in the number of productions and real yearly employment. However, the numbers just don't show it.
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- Jeremy2020 (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 11:01am
  
  Re: Truth about Hollywood's jobs numbers.
  You'd think there'd be no one left to pay the lobbyists anymore
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vastrightwing, 24 Apr 2012 @ 10:49am

Hollywood mathematics
No Hollywood doesn't expect legislators to accept inflated "loss" numbers, Hollywood expects politicians to do what they pay them do. Whatever that may be. The hyperbole is there for public consumption. They know we are ignorant and stupid.
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- Niall (profile), 25 Apr 2012 @ 5:01am
  
  Re: Hollywood mathematics
  Witness Chris Dodds after SOPA...
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ASTROBOI, 24 Apr 2012 @ 12:27pm

UNIONS
I find it ironic that they mention union jobs. I worked as a union projectionist for years and "the industry" only ever did their best to destroy my job and replace me with a high school kid. In the end, they did just that. A more anti-union trade organisation than the MPAA would be hard to find. Why are movies made in Canada when they supposedly take place in the US? To avoid paying "countless" people the going U.S. rate perhaps? "Union" has been a dirty word to moviemakers since the first silent print was developed behind Edison's back. Now they mourn for us. Touching.
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Lorpius Prime (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 1:00pm

I think it's worth making the point that Techdirt's articles (though I couldn't say about individual authorship) have often emphasized the opportunity cost of stricter IP enforcement on innovation (i.e. that patent trolling tends to dampen the speed of invention and technology adoption). If that can be a legitimate complaint, then so could the film industry emphasizing opportunity costs of piracy on film industry employment, so that they may have a legitimate if piracy simply slowed new hiring without actually turning it negative.

I still think their copyright positions are fundamentally awful, and I'd be looking for evidence that employment is actually impacted in the way they claim. But it's still a good idea to be wary of hypocrisy in argument.
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AC Cobra, 24 Apr 2012 @ 1:18pm

Unions yes - MAFIAA bullshit no!
I am a unionized film worker, one of the "middle class" Trumka refers to, and I assure you he is full of shit in this case. Does piracy hurt our industry? Yes it does take a bite out of it. Is it decimating the industry, costing hundreds of thousands of jobs? Hell, no! The actual impact of piracy is vastly overstated by the industry lobbyists and Trumka is just acting as publicity arm by passing on their message.

I find it especially disingenuous their statements about the Chinese market. Although this is the largest growing and potentially lucrative new market, who is deluded enough to think they can afford to pay first-world prices for our content? And once they get their own production capability fully up and running they will be creating their own content, they may even become a net exporter to us!
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Anonymous Coward, 24 Apr 2012 @ 1:43pm

Wow, Techdirt math.

Would you care to explain what all is including in the "IP intensive industries"?

This is the type of crap you call the **AAs out on all the time - why are you allowing something so vague to be used to damn them?
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MahaliaShere (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 2:51pm

"I haven't "lost" every job I've never been hired for."

Oooh but imagine if we were allowed to count those in the unemployment numbers.
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Sambo, 24 Apr 2012 @ 5:18pm

winners and losers.
It's obvious isn't it - the reason they don't count the 46% increase in employment is because all the new employees are the lobbyists and lawyers needed to fight the 'good' fight.....
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That Anonymous Coward (profile), 24 Apr 2012 @ 6:40pm

"A 2011 report from the U.S. International Trade Commission estimated conservatively that if China protected intellectual property as the U.S. does, there would be approximately 923,000 new U.S. jobs. "

All of which would immediately be offshored to countries with lower wages and fewer safety rules so they could employee as few as 300,000 people.
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Lennart Regebro, 25 Apr 2012 @ 2:14am

Well, its' pretty hard to count imaginary things, so yes. It is "Countless jobs lost".
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Ninja (profile), 25 Apr 2012 @ 4:15am

What's even worse than the delusional numbers the MAFIAA presents is that our politicians swallow them whole and legislate over them. But if you think about they are also legislating over the ominous and impersonal vague threat of the Anonymous. I wonder if terrorism and other threats are actually all just a product of the very fertile imagination of our Govts collective imagination.
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BentFranklin (profile), 25 Apr 2012 @ 6:56am

What the hell is a "trademark-intensive" industry? In fact, the entire use of the word "intensive" is part of the lie. It make it sound like they go out and buy copyrights as raw material and assemble them into larger copyrights that they go back out and sell again. There's nothing intensive about any IP.
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Anonymous Coward, 25 Apr 2012 @ 7:17pm

So their math on hirings and firings is the same as their math for profit and loss.... not entirely suprising.
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- Anonymous Coward, 25 Apr 2012 @ 7:26pm
  
  Re:
  I mean... "lost sales" don't equal a loss (not that there have been any definitive numbers on how piracy is reflected in lost sales... but the numbers that don't come from hollywood seem to show that pirates buy ~more~ than non-pirates).
  We didn't make as much money as we wanted too, we didn't create as many new jobs as we could have (not that the realy want to create more jobs since that would eat into their profit margins).
  
  Why am I seeing Southpark in my head "They took my JOB", I can only assume this is the reaction they were going for.
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