Bogus Copyright Numbers Enter The Fight Over Cyberhacking As Well
from the is-there-nothing-those-numbers-can't-do? dept
For many years, we've talked about just how bogus the numbers are that get thrown around for "losses" and "job losses" due to copyright infringement. And yet they keep getting repeated. Two years ago, we were particularly stunned by a report from the ITC that claimed $48 billion dollars in losses directly due to Chinese piracy. But, as we looked at the methodology, the whole thing was completely ridiculous. It was based on just asking a bunch of companies how much they thought they must have lost to Chinese infringement. Not only is that a horribly unreliable and biased way to try to determine what's actually going on, it's difficult to see how companies would even know that information in the first place.Outside of piracy, we've also noted that the stats used to support "cybercrime" and "cybersecurity" efforts are often just as bogus. And here we have a story that brings the two subjects together.
SongLifter points us to a NY Post article about Chinese cyberhacking which builds off of the Mandiant report that got so much attention. The article is bizarre in that it claims that the US isn't fighting back against Chinese hackers and somehow that we're sitting on our hands while a great "cyberwar" is being waged against us. Apparently, the author, Ralph Peters, is wholly unaware that some of the only confirmed "attacks" via a computer system were by the US. All this "woe is us" hand-wringing is just bizarre. But then Rogers tosses out these bogus and debunked numbers as if they're proof that we must attack China online:
According to the US International Trade Commission, Chinese intellectual property theft cost the United States $48 billion in 2009, as well as taking away 2 million jobs. Since then, the amount of theft has worsened, so the total loss is likely around $300 billion. But US companies, afraid that making their losses public will shake consumer confidence, won’t go public with their outrage.Except, there's no way those numbers are even close to accurate. Again, they're based on self-reporting, and any estimate of "value" is guaranteed to be grossly overweighted. Then, take those numbers and, for reasons that make no sense at all, you don't just "grow" the $48 billion, but expand it more than six times to claim it must be up to $300 billion by now? Really? And we're using that totally bogus and made up number as the basis of an argument for why we need to kick off a "cyberattack" on China? As if that won't escalate things even further? Incredible.
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Filed Under: bogus numbers, china, cispa, copyright, cybersecurity, itc, job losses, losses
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Mr Quixote must be astonished, never before the giants were so giant!
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Bogus stats
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Re: Bogus stats
Rinse. Repeat.
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Normally I'd say such a person is ignorant and clueless, but he's simply just intellectually dishonest.
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yeah that would be because it doesn't.
Well, actually, the rubes in suits freak out and waste millions on lobbyists and suing customers. So, in that sense you are correct.
Nigel
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Seriously, if he ever said that "File sharing increased the music market by 100 billion dollars worldwide in 2005(source: piratebay). It has surely increased since then, making the gains likely around 1 Trillion dollars and 50 Billion jobs..." No one here would believe him. However, it's cool if the maximalists use that same 'math' and 'reporting.'
This is actually a neat literary trick. It's technically 'reasonable' (pretending that the original number was correct), but it took me three readings to realize what it was actually saying. Of course, I've ruined the analogy because I couldn't think of a source approximately as reliable as that ITC report.
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Instead of just dishonest, like you, boy?
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Normally I'd say such a person is ignorant and clueless, so I'll run with that...
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Well, any figure for LOSSES due to piracy
However, kudos for at least a clear position.
YET, I'm going to quibble with your word choice in "The article is bizarre" -- doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong, just unusual. If "wrong-headed cyber-war-mongering" is too strong for you, "mistaken" is far better than "bizarre".
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Re: Well, any figure for LOSSES due to piracy
Which is why home taping killed the music industry and the VCR strangled women in Boston. Oh, wait.
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Perhaps you can produce more accurate figures?
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So you can't debunk a methodology without coming up with a different one? I don't think so...
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What evidence do you have?
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Uh, that whole sentence presupposes that there is more reasonable data, or that the data is meaningful.
Attack every attempt to enforce IP rights and laws, but offer no viable alternative.
We present viable alternatives ALL THE TIME: it's called *adapting* to the modern world. Change your business model and get with the times.
After all, the rest of the world is doing exactly that.
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If you truly had the idea for a better business model then you wouldn't be so afraid of intellectual property laws being enforced. Your model would usurp all others on merit alone.
But you don't
You realize you aren't fooling anyone with your bullshit, right Masnick?
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You know there's more to it than that.
Who's being dishonest?
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You're also assuming the "better business models" talked about on Techdirt work for everyone, which is not necessarily true considering that even Mike has said some of them do not work for everyone.
So, you realize you aren't fooling anyone with your asinine perception on things, right?
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You're also assuming the "better business models" talked about on Techdirt work for everyone, which is not necessarily true considering that even Mike has said some of them do not work for everyone.
The current system doesn't work for everyone either, just a select few making all the big bucks through exploitation of creative minds, so all anyone has to do to suggest a viable option is one that works just a little bit better for more people.
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Pure bullshit.
And provably so, as if it were true, no one would sign with record labels or make movies with studios. Duh.
No one rips off creative minds more than pirates. No One. And these are the people Mike Masnick champions and sides with on this blog.
You'll have a hard time finding anyone on the internet more anti-artist than Mike Masnick.
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Of course they would, when the only alternative is obscurity. But they're doing so less and less as time goes by and the internet is making it possible to break out of the effective monopoly on distribution.
Which is exactly what is making the MPAA and RIAA members go insane.
Now, that's pure bullshit. And provably so. All you have to do is read what he writes.
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uh no. The internet changed that years ago. Even Masnick says that.
Despite the internet, labels and studios remain the go-to for the artists. For a myriad of reasons that you have no clue about, because you're not an artist and have no fucking idea what you're babbling about.
You fail again.
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You claim the artists are hurt; care to provide any data or statements that aren't pulled out of your ass?
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No one ever said not to. It's just that locking things up, pissing off your customers (Hello, customer is always right?), and only allowing customers to use your product the way you want them to isn't the best way to sell things. It makes your customers upset, creates a demand for competition and invites someone into the market to do a better job than you are.
Someone explain to me how DMCA takedowns of people showing off and supporting your work is selling what you create? If you can, then move on to DMCA takedowns on reviews/critics. If you need more, try validating all the business practices just in the articles from last week that involve using copyright...
If you can do all that, you might be crooked enough to be a lawyer or politician. If you do it with a straight face, MAFIAA lobbyist positions are that way ->
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Pretending otherwise is just the usual intellectual dishonesty we see from piracy apologists on Techdirt.
Snore.
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Yes indeed. But trying to force those sales on people by limiting their rights, taking away their ability to share, breaking their products, etc...
That's the part that's obsolete. Relying on that aspect of the business model is the problem we're talking about.
If you truly had the idea for a better business model then you wouldn't be so afraid of intellectual property laws being enforced. Your model would usurp all others on merit alone.
The problem is when those laws GET IN THE WAY of effective business models.
You realize you aren't fooling anyone with your bullshit, right Masnick?
Not trying to "fool" anyone, and judging by the number of people who contact me about this stuff, it appears that indeed, I'm not "fooling" anyone, but an awful lot of people seem interested in learning more about these business models.
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That's a complete nonsequitor. The problem I have with the enforcement of current copyright laws has nothing to do with business models or which is better. It has to do with these laws causing collateral damage to people who are not otherwise involved with the situation.
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Depriving people of their right to do something (copyright enforcement) isn't a human right cause you're actually infringing on another's rights via a monopolisitic right granted by a government body (still not a human right).
Now the ability to have, express, or share an idea is a different story and I'll back any of those (even if I don't back the idea).
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1. If "every vehicle to enforce acknowledged IP" laws is both NOT effective and likely to make the problem WORSE, then why not decry them? I mean, this isn't rocket science.
2. You're lying. As discussed here, the UN makes it clear that copyright is not what they're talking about. https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20121019/12333120767/no-copyright-is-not-human-right.shtml
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The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights 1948
Article 27 (2): Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.
You seem to think the provisions related to the public somehow trump creators rights. It doesn't. Most of the world's creative output is readily available- but not for free. The UN simultaneous recognizes both rights; and both are attainable but no one has a human right to free content.
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Not my conclusions, nor my article. So, yeah.
In the meantime, can you actually refute what's been said?
The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights 1948
Article 27 (2): Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.
And... from that same document:
Article 27 (1): Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its benefits.
On top of that, from the discussion on that document:
"Moreover, the scope of protection of the moral and material interests of the author... does not necessarily coincide with what is referred to as intellectual property rights under national legislation or international agreements.
It is therefore important not to equate intellectual property rights with the human right recognized..."
In other words, I stand by my words. You lied. Or, possibly were ignorant. Somehow, I doubt the latter, though.
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Not my conclusions, nor my article. So, yeah.
Sorry, I didn't read the byline. Who wrote it? Jerry Mahoney or Charlie McCarthy?
In the meantime, can you actually refute what's been said?
The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights 1948
Article 27 (2): Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.
And... from that same document:
Article 27 (1): Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its benefits.
I think "freely" relates to have access to. Not doesn't have to pay, as I'm sure you wish. In any event, there is nothing in that passage that conflicts with creators exclusive rights.
On top of that, from the discussion on that document:
"Moreover, the scope of protection of the moral and material interests of the author... does not necessarily coincide with what is referred to as intellectual property rights under national legislation or international agreements.
Wait, where is the discussion from? I didn't see that in the body of the document. Can you shed some light on where to find this and in what context this discussion took place? Also, you completely ignore "not necessarily". That door is wide open.
"It is therefore important not to equate intellectual property rights with the human right recognized..."
This from the same discussion? Not knowing context, it's hard to assess relevance. I am certain this wasn't something adopted by the UN itself.
In other words, I stand by my words. You lied. Or, possibly were ignorant. Somehow, I doubt the latter, though.
Sorry, is this 'Journalist Mike' saying this or 'NOT a Journalist Mike' talking?
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Stop being a moron and kjust accept that is concept of a journalist is different than yours.
I swear you're just looking for things to bitch about.
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For all the whining that pirates have abused their Internet privileges, rightsholders haven't been playing fair either. Insisting that the whole industry has been dying since "Home Taping is Killing Music" isn't fooling anybody.
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Enough said.
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Enough said.
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The most 'accurate' that you could get would be estimates taking into account historical sales, and a whole slew of other things, and the sheer number of variables, both those considered and those that are missed, would make the 'estimates' as about as accurate as a guess anyway.
Add to that the self-interest of the companies in making their 'loses' look as big as they can, in an attempt to sway any rulings or laws their way, and a wild guess or numbers picked out of the air would probably be more accurate than the figures they keep throwing out.
As an example, consider the 'figures/estimates' that the music and movie industries keep throwing out, about the billions of dollars, and millions of jobs that they 'lose' every year. If their estimates/claims were even close to accurate, they'd have gone out of business decades ago(instead of continued to make record sales on an almost yearly basis, but that's another topic for another time).
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The first challenge to produce good statistics is that cyber attacks happen all the time. Except that the great majority produces little to no harm (ie: if you consider DDoS a form of attack you'll see that most ISPs use defensive measures by default and bw resellers offer protection tools for an additional cost). On the other hand those that produce really bad harm tend to be hidden by the authorities either to avoid impacts to the markets, to avoid rising awareness to the sensitive contents or simply because they think they should keep those a secret.
So there's no real reliable way to gather the most basic data for starters.
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Most of it is going to end up being guesswork, and we should not be making decisions (read: laws) based on wild guesses.
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As has been said MANY times before... prove a problem exists before we fix it.
This was attempted, and has clearly been debunked as not much more than a random number generator. This article (and it's not the only one) are simply pointing out major flaws in the logic of the argument to prove a problem exists. Thus, the conclusion is that the proof still isn't there and that maximalists need to do a better job of proving the problem exists before we're on board with any concept of fixing the problem.
This all brought to you without 1 ounce of an arguement about copyright being too far already. We'll leave that for another day....
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Not a journalist, but we went through the ITC report in this story which is *LINKED* in the post above. Figured there was no need to repeat it, since most people know how to click.
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110518/16301314325/us-itc-uses-ridiculous-methodology-t o-claim-piracy-china-costs-us-firms-48-billion-2009.shtml
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Not a journalist..... this time. You certainly have characterized yourself as such when it suits you.
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Or you interpreted him as such...when it suited you, boy.
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And by "subject" I mean your hilarious attempt at insulting.
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Indeed. I think that everyone can *do journalism* but it doesn't mean that you are a journalist. Not sure how that's an issue. There are times when I do journalism. There are times when lots of people do journalism. But that doesn't make them a journalist all the time.
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Good, as long as we can stop hearing you talk.
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Actually, I do the opposite. I note that I am NOT a journalist, but that doesn't mean that I don't sometimes do *journalism*. Not sure why your brain has trouble understanding such a basic concept.
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This is just so dumb, Mike. If a journalist is someone who does journalism, and you sometimes do journalism, then you are, at least sometimes, a journalist. Let me ask you this. How are we supposed to know when you're being a journalist (or at least doing journalism, as you admit you do at times) and when you're not? Why are we ever supposed to take you seriously if we can't tell the difference? Seriously. I'd love a response that addresses this question directly. Thanks.
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Sometimes I cook dinner. That does not make me a chef.
Sometimes I drive people place. That does not make me a chauffeur.
Sometimes I work in my yard. That does not make me a landscape architect.
One is an action, one is a profession. I am not, by profession, a journalist. Though, sometimes, in the course of my work, I do journalism.
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Not a journalist, but we went through the ITC report in this story which is *LINKED* in the post above. Figured there was no need to repeat it, since most people know how to click.
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110518/16301314325/us-itc-uses-ridiculous-methodology-t o-claim-piracy-china-costs-us-firms-48-billion-2009.shtml
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If that double post was on purpose then hats off to you dear sir. Have a + funny vote ;D
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Of course...
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Better than the "fair and balanced" news on its Murdoch stablemate, FOX News Channel.
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Seems like we have a new equation
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Re: Seems like we have a new equation
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More "cybersecurity" BS
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probably the ITC wants to coerce China into changing their IP laws with those exaggerated numbers
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Many of the cyberhacking events put into real world terms would show stupidity is the problem.
We left the house with the doors open and someone came in and redecorated.
We totally protect your privacy, but we forgot to actually buy the safe we store your information in.
Some neighborhood kids TP'ed the house, we lost trillions.
Explanations are just as simple...
Anonymous is superpowerful. We forgot to change the root password.
It was CHINA! We have no idea who hacked us, but its best to blame them.
We suffered no losses. We are going to run crying screaming how those evil kids nearly ruined our business in court.
They penetrated our network. The CEO thought a firewall was to costly and got a new gold trash can instead.
Cyber lets them claim some mystical force allowed this to happen, rather than the cost/benefit analysis showed it was cheaper to clean up instead of prevent.
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Dollars
"$" or "dollars", not both.
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Copyright parasites want you to pay something for nothing!
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